Full marks to Cornwall Councillor Jude Robinson for crunching the numbers - there's nothing quite like election results (as opposed to opinion polls) to tell us which way the wind is blowing. Of course, local council by-elections are full of anomalies, such as bizarre local issues, candidates known better for personality than policy etc, but give me results rather than forecasts any day. The numbers don't add up to 100% because not all parties (including Independents) contested every by-election, but tell us the average vote share when candidates entered the field.
Independents: 40%
Labour 36%
Conservatives 34%
Lib Dems 24%
Greens 18%
Mebyon Kernow 11%
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